Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

智能船舶集成设计技术

针对符合CCS《智能船舶规范》入级符号的船舶设计开发,研究分析智能船舶集成设计技术的设计思想、设计要素、设计框架和关键技术,设计目标船解决方案,并讨论了未来需要突破技术方向。     

Travel time estimation from sparse floating car data with consistent path inference: A fixed point approach

Estimation of urban network link travel times from sparse floating car data (FCD) usually needs pre-processing, mainly map-matching and path inference for finding the most likely vehicle paths that are consistent with reported locations. Path inference requires a priori assumptions about link travel times; using unrealistic initial link travel times can bias the travel time estimation and subsequent identification of shortest paths. Thus, the combination of path inference and travel time estimation is a joint problem. This paper investigates the sensitivity of estimated travel times, and proposes a fixed point formulation of the simultaneous path inference and travel time estimation problem. The methodology is applied in a case study to estimate travel times from taxi FCD in Stockholm, Sweden. The results show that standard fixed point iterations converge quickly to a solution where input and output travel times are consistent. The solution is robust under different initial travel times assumptions and data sizes. Validation against actual path travel time measurements from the Google API and an instrumented vehicle deployed for this purpose shows that the fixed point algorithm improves shortest path finding. The results highlight the importance of the joint solution of the path inference and travel time estimation problem, in particular for accurate path finding and route optimization.     

A generic data assimilation framework for vehicle trajectory reconstruction on signalized urban arterials using particle filters

With trajectory data, a complete microscopic and macroscopic picture of traffic flow operations can be obtained. However, trajectory data are difficult to observe over large spatiotemporal regions—particularly in urban contexts—due to practical, technical and financial constraints. The next best thing is to estimate plausible trajectories from whatever data are available. This paper presents a generic data assimilation framework to reconstruct such plausible trajectories on signalized urban arterials using microscopic traffic flow models and data from loops (individual vehicle passages and thus vehicle counts); traffic control data; and (sparse) travel time measurements from whatever source available. The key problem we address is that loops suffer from miss- and over-counts, which result in unbounded errors in vehicle accumulations, rendering trajectory reconstruction highly problematic. Our framework solves this problem in two ways. First, we correct the systematic error in vehicle accumulation by fusing the counts with sparsely available travel times. Second, the proposed framework uses particle filtering and an innovative hierarchical resampling scheme, which effectively integrates over the remaining error distribution, resulting in plausible trajectories. The proposed data assimilation framework is tested and validated using simulated data. Experiments and an extensive sensitivity analysis show that the proposed method is robust to errors both in the model and in the measurements, and provides good estimations for vehicle accumulation and vehicle trajectories with moderate sensor quality. The framework does not impose restrictions on the type of microscopic models used and can be naturally extended to include and estimate additional trajectory attributes such as destination and path, given data are available for assimilation.     

Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

Modeling real-time human mobility based on mobile phone and transportation data fusion

Even though a variety of human mobility models have been recently developed, models that can capture real-time human mobility of urban populations in a sustainable and economical manner are still lacking. Here, we propose a novel human mobility model that combines the advantages of mobile phone signaling data (i.e., comprehensive penetration in a population) and urban transportation data (i.e., continuous collection and high accuracy). Using the proposed human mobility model, travel demands during each 1-h time window were estimated for the city of Shenzhen, China. Significantly, the estimated travel demands not only preserved the distribution of travel demands, but also captured real-time bursts of mobility fluxes during large crowding events. Finally, based on the proposed human mobility model, a predictive model is deployed to predict crowd gatherings that usually cause severe traffic jams.     

Sustainability and interactivity between cities and ports: a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach

Ports and cities are intrinsically linked. Port city, which serves as a link between the local and global economy, is an integration of both urban and port systems. Constrained by different regional structures, port cities have developed various formulations over time. Using a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, this paper proposes a new method for measuring the sustainable development of different port city systems. While the previous empirical studies often separate the port system and the urban system, this paper assesses the two systems in an integrated way. Moreover, this paper develops a systematic methodology for measurement of sustainability. Twenty world-leading container port cities are selected for this study using contemporary data. The DEA results display their relative differences in levels of sustainable development, which reveal the effectiveness of the prevailing policies in them. Eventually, recommendations are drawn for other port cities by referring to the best practices.     

Mental models of driving and speed: biases,choices and reality

This paper provides a review of research performed by Svenson with colleagues and others work on mental models and their practical implications. Mental models describe how people perceive and think about the world including covariances and relationships between different variables, such as driving speed and time. Research on mental models has detected the time-saving bias [Svenson, O. (1970). A functional measurement approach to intuitive estimation as exemplified by estimated time savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 86, 204–210]. It means that drivers relatively overestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from an already high speed, for example, 90–130?km/h, and underestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from a low speed, for example, 30–45?km/h. In congruence with this finding, mean speed judgments and perceptions of mean speeds are also biased and higher speeds given too much weight and low speeds too little weight in comparison with objective reality. Replacing or adding a new speedometer in the car showing min per km eliminated or weakened the time-saving bias. Information about braking distances at different speeds did not improve overoptimistic judgments of braking capacity, but information about collision speed with an object suddenly appearing on the road did improve judgments of braking capacity. This is relevant to drivers, politicians and traffic regulators.     

基于语义的可定制数据切分和动态加载方法

文章提供一种基于语义的可定制数据切分和动态加载方法，它能够对源数据库建立基于语义的元数据描述，根据不同用户的数据需求，依据数据的语义相关性，转化并归纳为通用的策略模版，基于策略进行数据的切割和数据的级联抽取。之后，采用容错式动态加载方法。这在一定程度上实现了异构数据库之间的批量数据迁移。